Results of the electoral college, as of one week after Election Day.
Hello! As per usual, I've left my blog neglected and abandoned for a quite a while now, and it would have been a full year since my last post, if it hadn't been for that pesky thing in the news recently. It figures, that it took something as monumental as that to drag me back into the blinding light of the blogosphere, even though I've maintained a clean record of writing exclusively about terrible metal music and even worse webcomics for nearly four years now.
As none of you will probably recall, I actually wrote about the previous American election, with as much snark and disaffection as I could conjure up at the time. Encouraging as many people as I could to vote Third Party was the only reaction I could muster to such a uniquely boring event, and the only perceivable solution to the much-maligned "Two Party System" that this country has run on since the 19th Century. Never in my lifetime did I think I would ever witness the beginnings of the collapse of those two parties, or an election so eerily familiar to previous upsets by Reagan, Truman, and others. These things used to be so...predictable, not to mention safe to gamble on. I was thankfully not so careless as bet tangible money on the American electorate.
Anyway, I was planning to fore-go commentary on the election, for the sake of avoiding the possibility of a public crucifixion of my character, but also because of my loss of interest in writing about any topic in general. And this time around, I'm offering my proverbial two cents after the dust has settled, rather than commiserating in apathy in the lead-up. On top of that, I'm dedicating this post to my guilt-ridden love affair with cartography (vexillology is for the true social deviant).
And lastly, I wanted to the clear the air of any misconceptions that might be generated from such misrepresentations as the classic yet simple "Red vs. Blue" map the media loves oh so much. I prefer something a little more...revealing, so I took the opportunity of my boundless free time to illustrate my own mapping of the electoral college, which can be viewed below:
Look at all the purple and pink! But what does it all mean? Well, I'll tell you! However, be forewarned: anyone looking for the certainty of stability for either of the two major parties, abandon all hope ye who stumbled upon here. Without further ado, let's start off with the Blue States! (They won the coin toss, which is custom in all significant elections, sporting events, talent shows, and other popularity contents).
California - 61.5 % Democratic (Average 60.9 % since 2008)
Washington - 55.7 % Democratic (Average 56.4 % since 2008)
D.C. - 92.8 % Democratic (Average 92.1 % since 2008)
Maryland - 60.5 % Democratic (Average 61.4 % since 2008)
Massachusetts - 60.8 % Democratic (Average 61.1 % since 2008)
New York - 58.8 % Democratic (Average 60.5 % since 2008)
New Jersey - 54.8 % Democratic (Average 55.5 % since 2008)
These were the only historically Blue states that showed no significant change in turnout this year, at least since Obama's first election eight years ago. With the exception of Massachusetts, New York, and the capital itself, most of these states were much less Democrat-leaning than they are now, but still consistently loyal since the Clinton years. And D.C. is one of two in the nation that has been a Democratic stronghold since before the Reagan administration (seriously, look at that percentage). Of these, only New Jersey and maybe Washington have a remote chance of flipping at any point in the next century, but decades of voting trends suggest otherwise. The Democratic Party's base of power will always be the metropolitan might of the New York City and Los Angeles areas, and the combined 84 electoral votes that serve as their primary advantage over the GOP in most of the recent elections. Let's move on, shall we?
The Lighter Blue States: Losing Their Faith
Hawaii - 62.2 % Democratic (9.7 % loss since 2008)
Oregon - 51.7 % Democratic (5.1 % loss since 2008)
Illinois - 55.4 % Democratic (6.5 % loss since 2008)
Vermont - 61.1 % Democratic (6.4 % loss since 2008)
Rhode Island - 54.9 % Democratic (8.0 % loss since 2008)
Delaware - 53.4 % Democratic (8.5 % loss since 2008)
Connecticut - 53.2 % Democratic (7.4 % loss since 2008)
These are also widely known to be "safe" for the Democrats, but anyone paying close attention to details would've known a troubling trend with this set: a markedly lower percentage of total votes, as compared to prior years. One could take into account a surge in the Republican base in these states, withdrawal of groups that came out in support of Obama in the previous decade, or an overall lack of participation from registered voters overall. Perhaps it was all of these reasons, or maybe enthusiasm has simply returned to their previous levels in Clinton and Bush eras. If this the case, then most of these can still be categorized as "safe" for the Democrats, but one or more could still potentially switch sides in the coming elections. Oregon would be the most at risk, and regardless of the way Portland tends to vote it sits alone in a sea of red, which makes it unique among the West Coast states. Hawaii and Vermont would be the least likely, for even though their percentages dropped as well, their numbers still match those of the aforementioned Safe Blue States.
Start Wearing Purple, Wearing Purple: The Southwest and New England.
New Mexico - 48.3 % Democratic (8.6 % loss since 2008)
Nevada - 47.9 % Democratic (7.3 % loss since 2008)
Colorado - 47.1 % Democratic (6.6 % loss since 2008)
Maine - 47.9 % Democratic (9.8 % loss since 2008)
New Hampshire - 47.5 % Democratic (6.9 % loss since 2008)
They were blue states this year, but they might be red next time. Margins were closer in these areas than most of the others, some much closer than any would have expected. Democrats may have prided themselves on winning over Southwestern states that had previously supported Republican candidates in at least one or more of the last dozen elections, but their victories were slim here and getting thinner every cycle. Colorado in particular, no longer one of the few states to have legalized recreational marijuana in a referendum vote, had nearly equal support for both Clinton and Trump. The votes for libertarian candidate Gary Johnson may have made the difference there. As free-spirited as they are, both Colorado and Nevada are in close proximity to the Mormon Capital of Utah, and its stalwart allies to the north.
The combined efforts of both libertarians and conservatives may also gain them New Hampshire and Maine in the northeast, the former of which has stood at the precipice of becoming a full-fledged Red State for quite a few elections now. Only will time will tell what will ultimately happen in these regions, but future success for the Democrats depends less on holding onto the far reaches of New England (which provide a measly four electoral votes each), and more on their gains in the Southwest, even if they lose the northern half to the deep red Rocky Mountains.
Shot Through The Heartland: The Revenge of the Rust Belt
Minnesota - 46.8 % Democratic (7.3 % loss since 2008)
Michigan - 47.6 % Republican (10.0 % loss since 2008) *
Wisconsin - 47.9 % Republican (9.3 % loss since 2008) *
Pennsylvania - 48.8 % Republican (6.8 % loss since 2008) *
Iowa - 51.8 % Republican (11.7 % loss since 2008) *
Ohio - 52.1 % Republican (8.0 % loss since 2008) *
Indiana - 57.2 % Republican (8.4 % gain since 2008)
Missouri - 58.2 % Republican (8.8 % gain since 2008)
* - loss from previous Democratic percentages
The shot heard 'round the world, and the moment when the carpet was pulled from beneath Clinton's feet. Both parties needed the usual battleground states for a decisive victory, including Ohio which has gone to the winner of every presidential election since 1964. But few among the media personalities and online pollsters ever considered the entire Midwest to be at play this year, or that all but two of them would fall in behind Trump, of all possible candidates. Most surprising was the Upper Midwest, traditionally the realm of labor unions and the considerable minority populations of shrinking cities such as Detroit. Minnesota was the only one of the three to be narrowly claimed by Hillary, but it will join its neighbors in due time if current trends continue. Pennsylvania, however, was the true loss (or major win for the opposition), with its hefty 20 electoral votes that pushed Trump to the edge of the finish line in the twilight hours of the election.
Ol' Reliable: The Rockies, The Plains, and Appalachia
Montana - 56.5 % Republican (Average 55.8 % since 2000)
Idaho - 59.2 % Republican (Average 64.0 % since 2000)
Utah - 67.0 % Republican (Average 68.0 % since 2000) *
Wyoming - 70.1 % Republican (Average 68.0 % since 2000)
Kansas - 57.2 % Republican (Average 58.7 % since 2000)
Nebraska - 60.3 % Republican (Average 61.0 % since 2000)
South Dakota - 61.5 % Republican (Average 58.6 % since 2000)
North Dakota - 64.1 % Republican (Average 59.8 % since 2000)
Louisiana - 58.1 % Republican (Average 56.8 % since 2000)
Mississippi - 58.1 % Republican (Average 57.3 % since 2000)
Arkansas - 60.4 % Republican (Average 57.1 % since 2000)
Tennessee - 61.5 % Republican (Average 57.2 % since 2000)
Kentucky - 62.5 % Republican (Average 59.3 % since 2000)
Alabama - 62.9 % Republican (Average 60.6 % since 2000)
West Virginia - 68.7 % Republican (Average 58.9 % since 2000)
* - Combined results for both Trump and McMullin (Independent)
Not much to say here. Most who regularly follow the electoral process are familiar with the fervent redness of the so-called "flyover states." Their numbers are roughly equal to the amount of blue states and mostly-blue states, but those are pushed apart to the West and East coasts, and the lonely island of Illinois in the middle. The solid red states cover almost half of the continental United States, and at least some of them are growing even more Republican, either due to the influence of the LDS Church in the West, or similar economic concerns to the Midwest in the Appalachian states. But like the blues, it would be hard to imagine any of the going pink, let alone purple in the next few decades. I know some of you might have already noticed some glaring omissions from this category, which brings us to our next section:
Prep Those Doomsday Shelters: Red States going Pink (and back again?)
Arizona - 49.6 % Republican (5.2 % loss since 2004)
Texas - 52.4 % Republican (8.7 % loss since 2004)
Alaska - 52.9 % Republican (8.2 % loss since 2004)
Florida - 49.0 % Republican (Average 48.8 % since 2008)
Virginia - 49.9 % Democratic (Average 51.2 % since 2008)
North Carolina - 50.5 % Republican (Average 50.1 % since 2008)
Georgia - 51.3 % Republican (Average 52.2 % since 2008)
South Carolina - 54.9 % Republican (Average 54.5 % since 2008)
Okay, admittedly this category isn't completely accurate. Though the South Atlantic states are the closest of the Red States to turn Blue in the near future, most with the exception of Georgia have actually grown more Republican since Obama's first election. Granted, their percentages are still obviously much lower than they were in eras past, but the point is that Democrats possibly won't be able to rely on this region for future electoral gains. Clinton may have won over Virginia after all, but at a much slimmer margin than her former rival was able to accomplish. In fact, it was because Trump ignored Virginia mere days before the polls closed and refocused his energy on the other major swing states, that he was able to clutch the election. Florida, like Ohio, will likely always go to the victor of either party, but North Carolina has since turned its nose up to the Democrats since 2008, and South Carolina is the least likely of the bunch to turn any time soon. Only Georgia has become more flexible to work with for the Dems, and with its staggering 16 electoral votes could prove a potent blow to the GOP should it ever switch.
The Southwest, on the other hand, could spell sudden death for the Republicans if current trends continue. Alaska has gone from being a deep red state in the Bush years to more libertarian locale, open-minded to any and all third party candidates. But at a mere electoral value of three, it won't concern the GOP nearly as much as Arizona and Texas, sitting pretty on 11 and 38 respectively. Arizona may very well be a Blue state within the next few elections, and it was already a light-red state ever since the first Clinton was out of office. The loss of Texas, however, would quite literally be biblical. The rural and suburban natives may become more affluent in the rapidly developing powerhouse, but it will only serve to attract more liberal transplants from the coasts to their largest cities, particularly Austin, as well as immigrants forming their own communities along its southwestern border. If the Democrats actually pull it off, they would have the three largest states (in terms of electoral votes) in their pocket, and might not lose a single election (for the White House, at least) for quite some time.
That is, of course, if the Republicans simply don't abandon both the southwest and the South-Atlantic coast for new bases in the Midwest and even the Northeast, essentially making them the Northern party that they were prior to the 1960s. Also, the other southwestern states are becoming less Democrat-friendly, not more, and the region will likely remain purple overall for the foreseeable future. It must also be taken into account that Alaska and Arizona were the only Red states to have rapidly swung to the left in the last few cycles; all other states have either remained as they were, or grew more Republican. Of course, this might simply be explained by the simultaneous popularity - and notoriety - of both party's candidates this time around, just as Obama brought previously-disaffected voters to the polls in record numbers before they settled down again in 2012. All I'm saying is, it's not clear at this point whether one of the Two Parties will emerge victorious in their eternal struggle; merely that the battle lines are being redrawn in newer and fresher territories.
Anyway, time for even more random statistics!
Most Democratic in the 2016 election:
Washington D.C. - 92.8 %
Hawaii - 62.2 %
California - 61.5 %
Most Republican in the 2016 election:
Wyoming - 70.1 %
West Virginia - 68.7 %
Oklahoma - 65.3 %
The Blue-est of the Blue States:
Washington D.C. - 92.1 %
Maryland - 61.4 %
Massachusetts - 61.1 %
The Red-est of the Red States:
Utah - 68.3 %
Wyoming - 67.8 %
Oklahoma - 65.9 %
Tune in next time, when I change gears (again) and return to my annual Music and Movies of 2016 posts.
Until then...courage.
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